Tuesday, January 10, 2017

Mid Day Cattle Comment

Mid Day Cattle Comment Marketing Spring Cattle Inventory Webinar, Tuesday January 10th @ 4:00pm cst. Register Here January 10, 2017 Live Cattle: First off, if you have currency risk or dealings in your operation, my analysis suggests the US dollar index has reversed. Whether short term or long, I anticipate a retracement of some significance in the US dollar index. This leads me to recommend that what ever countries currency you are doing business with, you secure that exchange rate as soon as possible. Cattle are firming this morning with all contract months but the February setting a new high in this rally from contract low. The technical indicators are poised to again create a divergence pattern. With all oscillator readings currently well below previous high, and price setting new highs, it won't be difficult to see this pattern develop. Further subtle changes are being noted this morning from the weather to improving exports. There remains nothing specific that one could point to that is a prominent leader of this rally. I perceive it to be more just some subtle changes that have broken the back of the bear market. Funds apparently continue to think so, as they have widened their girth further into the market. Open interest is now above 315,000 contracts. Just 2 months ago, it fluctuated under 250,000 contracts. I'm looking forward to discussing the markets this afternoon. I hope you can join me. Feeder Cattle: Feeders have developed a slightly different pattern than that of the fats. The March contract appears to have topped its wave 3 on 12/1 at $126.47. From there, it appears that a complex sideways pattern has emerged as the wave 4 correction. This leads me to anticipate a wave 5 rally to approximately $133.20 March. This is only $3.00 above the previous target that has yet to be met. With the time and price that has transpired from previous recommendations, I recommend revisiting how much more protection you need, and potentially more specific time frame to be marketing in. In this afternoon's discussion, I'll present the strategy I perceive to compliment the current environment in an attempt to reduce price risk for this spring's marketing's. Corn: Grains are mixed this morning. That may not last long depending on how quickly the US dollar begins fall, if at all. The more news I hear out of north Texas through Oklahoma about the drying conditions there, leads me to think the wheat may have some legs under it for a little while. Corn is anticipated to continue to move sideways. Beans above $10.16 March will go a long way in breaking short term down trend lines and exceeding previous highs. The bean oil has begun to show some strength again. Recall it was the previous leader of the complex. Account Forms: FutureSource: Christopher B. Swift Swift Trading Company 144 Second Avenue North Nashville, TN 37201 877-863-2206 615-844-2206 http://www.shootinthebull.com/

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